Using Artificial Intelligence to prevent patient loss to follow up

Introducing BroadReach Consulting's
Patient Retention Solution

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Preventing loss to follow up to improve health outcomes

  • Early identification of patients at risk of dropping off treatment
  • Timeously intervene to prevent patients from defaulting on treatment
  • Monitor effectiveness of patient retention interventions for ongoing improvement

Preventing loss to follow up

BroadReach Consulting's Patient Retention Solution

Keeping HIV positive patients on treatment is vital to bringing HIV into epidemic control and achieving the UNAIDS “90-90-90” targets:



90% of HIV+ individuals
aware of their status



90% of diagnosed patients on sustained treatment



90% of treated patients achieving viral suppression

Patients who drop out of treatment have poor health outcomes and increase the risk of viral transmission. The term ‘Loss to follow up” (LTFU) is used to describe patients who drop out of care.

The challenge of LTFU is magnified in underserved communities. Promising interventions to increase patient engagement are hampered by capacity constraints. Scalable technologies deployed elsewhere to promote adherence remain out of reach, exacerbated by technical and regulatory challenges.

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Key benefits to the program

01. Improved patient outcomes and overall program impact

Foresight gives programs the ability to pre-emptively intervene and prevent loss to follow up, keeping more patients on treatment and saving lives.

Impact of the Patient Retention Solution on Programs - Despite intervention

02. Program cost efficiencies

Preventing loss to follow up (LTFU) saves the costs incurred to bring a lost patient back into treatment and avoids catastrophic cost escalation due to issues associated with drug resistance. This ultimately enables programs to spend budgets more efficiently and effectively.

Impact of the Patient Retention Solution on Programs - Costs

03. Improved efficacy of patient retention interventions

The BroadReach Consulting Patient Retention Solution enables programs to track which interventions yield positive results and which do not, and refine interventions as needed.


Example of an At Risk Patient List produced by the BroadReach Consulting Patient Retention Solution

The power of technology

Product features of the At Risk Patient List

Folder Number + Gender + Date of Birth (DoB): De-identified data is used to protect patient identity

Date of Birth: DoB is one of many input variables that will influence a patients risk score

Staff Allocated + Cadre of Case Coordinator ‘feature’: Ensuring clear resource commitment to actioning patient retention interventions, the program can measure whether one care giver performs better or worse than another and apply corrective action as well as the customized intervention efficacy

Approach and methodology

Predictive analytics that prevents patient loss to follow up

Consistent with good analytics practice, we developed models on a subset of the data of 500,000 HIV positive patients. We used this to train the model, and then applied the resulting models to the broader dataset to validate the quality of the model. We continued to tune the models through numerous iterations of feature and selection.

Our modelling approach was able to achieve sufficiently robust scores across the various predictive models to be insightful at clinical operations level. The confidence in predictions ranged from 68 - 75%, which was then improved to 80 - 88% in the final tuned model.


The model, whilst built on a large data set, can be utilised on a smaller data set with the same level of confidence.

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We use Vantage

AI-generated insights

The BroadReach Consulting Patient Retention Solution is built on Vantage's proprietary technology that uses AI and machine learning to produce predictive analytics.

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We are BroadReach

We are a group of social impact businesses. We are consultants, technologists and health systems management experts who see beyond the numbers.

Using almost two decades of experience and the foremost technology, we design and deliver effective solutions to healthcare problems in emerging markets, empowering stakeholders to make the right decisions and implement the right actions that improve health outcomes and change lives.

We are the BroadReach Group.

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More than

15 years

experience in Health Systems Strengthening


Our work spans

30 countries

across Africa, the Americas & Asia


We use


technologies to deliver impactful solutions

Contact us

For more information about Vantage Technologies & BroadReach visit

    The Business Exchange
    3 Bridgeway
    Ground Floor
    Bridgeway Precinct
    Century City
    7441, Cape Town
    Phone: +27 21 514 8300
    Fax: +27 21 511 5292
    Regional Offices
    Washington, DC, USA
    Zurich, Switzerland
    Cape Town, South Africa
    Pretoria, South Africa
    Lusaka, Zambia
    Nairobi, Kenya